By Izzy Phillips, NFL Writer
It all started so well last week with the Steelers getting the job done against the Saints in Paris. Then it all went downhill pretty quickly, with both the unbeaten 49ers and the Chiefs taking a tumble. The Chiefs, in particular, completely fell apart, managing just a field goal!
Surely, it was too bad to be true? With Halloween weekend upon us, I’m hoping the witching hour is here, and the tide is about to turn for Week 8. We’ve got some cracking divisional matchups, a few teams desperate to get their seasons back on track, and plenty of opportunities for things to get a little spooky. 👻
Here’s where I’m looking this week.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Izzy’s pick: Cleveland Browns Moneyline
This has the makings of a tight one, with the Steelers coming into the game fresh from their win over the Saints in Paris and continuing to put together a decent season.
The Browns also got the job done last week, picking up the win they really needed against the Titans. With both teams sitting at 5-2 at the top of the AFC North, this is a proper divisional showdown with first place on the line.
Cleveland have already shown they can get the better of Pittsburgh this season, having beaten them at home. The big question is whether they can repeat the trick on the road, where the Browns haven’t beaten the Steelers since 2003. That’s a pretty daunting statistic to take into a hostile Pittsburgh environment!
However, I’m tempted to look past the home advantage here. The Steelers have had the travel and the disruption of playing in Paris, and I wonder whether that could leave them a little leggy coming into this one.
It’s certainly not a pick I’d be shouting from the rooftops, but I fancy Cleveland to make a statement and edge what should be a hard-fought divisional battle.
Sometimes you’ve just got to back the team that has a point to prove!
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Izzy’s pick: New England Patriots -5.5
The Dolphins finally got their first win of the season last week against the Jets, but I’m not convinced that’s the turning point they need. Beating the Jets is one thing; getting the job done against a Patriots side with genuine ambitions is another.
New England are sitting second in the AFC East and will be keen to keep the pressure on at the top of the division. These are the games they need to be winning, and ideally winning comfortably.
Drake Maye has had to do plenty of scrambling this season, using his legs to keep drives alive when things haven’t quite clicked. However, his passing game is looking much more settled than it did earlier in the campaign, and that’s an encouraging sign for the Patriots’ offence.
The key here will be whether New England can control the game and make Miami work for every possession. If the Patriots can establish their rhythm offensively and avoid giving the Dolphins cheap opportunities, I think they should have enough to cover the spread.
Really, this is New England’s game to throw away, and I’m hoping they don’t!
I’ll take the Patriots to win by at least six points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Izzy’s pick: Washington Commanders -3.5
The Eagles’ season is falling apart, and I really can’t see how they turn this around without Jalen Hurts.
They’re struggling badly without their starting quarterback, and the backup simply isn’t convincing enough to keep this offence ticking over. The whole team looks a shadow of what we’ve come to expect, and right now, I wouldn’t be surprised if their season completely unraveled from here.
Saquon Barkley was back in action against the Cowboys last week following his hamstring injury, but he was back out of the game again by the fourth quarter. Just when the Eagles need their key players to step up, they can’t seem to keep everyone on the field. It’s hardly the recipe for turning a struggling season around.
Washington aren’t exactly having a stellar season themselves, but they come into this one fresh from a bye and playing at home. That gives them time to prepare, and against an Eagles side looking so vulnerable, this is a real opportunity to get a result.
There are injury concerns to keep an eye on, including Diggs, but if Washington can get their key players onto the field, they should have enough firepower to take advantage of Philadelphia’s problems.
I’m backing Washington to win by more than a field goal. They might not be the most spectacular team to watch, but they don’t need to be flashy here. They just need to turn up, do the basics well and let the Eagles’ problems do the rest.
The way things are going in Philadelphia, I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets messy!
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Izzy’s pick: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
As a Green Bay Packers fan, you’ll forgive me for not being particularly enthusiastic about backing the Bears. Thankfully, I don’t think I’ll need much convincing this week, because I’m backing Seattle at home.
The Seahawks were outstanding against the Chiefs last week, limiting Kansas City to just a field goal. That’s a statement defensive performance against an offence that usually finds a way to put points on the board.
And let’s be honest, Seattle at home is a different proposition. The 12th Man makes life incredibly difficult for visiting teams, and that home advantage can be a genuine factor when offences are trying to communicate and execute under pressure.
Chicago have already shown some vulnerability on the road this season, including their trip to Lambeau Field, where the Packers handed them a hefty beating. I’m not convinced the Bears will find life any easier in Seattle.
The Seahawks’ defence looks like one of the strongest units in football right now. They’ve had a few injury concerns, but with players returning, they’re looking increasingly formidable. If they can generate pressure, disrupt Chicago’s passing game and force the Bears into uncomfortable situations, I can see this becoming a long afternoon for the visitors.
The question is whether Chicago can find a way to get their offence moving against a defence that has just made life miserable for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I’m not betting against Seattle at home here. Give me the Seahawks to win and cover the -2.5. And if it means the Bears take another defeat, even better!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Izzy’s pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline
Now this is one I’m really looking forward to!
Both sides come into this matchup having picked up important wins last week. Atlanta took down the 49ers, while Tampa Bay put the Panthers away by a comfortable margin, with Baker Mayfield returning and making his presence felt.
The Buccaneers have ground to make up in the NFC South, and this is exactly the sort of matchup they need to win if they’re serious about staying in the hunt.
Baker’s return is a huge boost for Tampa Bay. His ability to keep plays alive and make things happen when the pocket breaks down is a big part of what makes this offence tick. When he’s playing with confidence, the Buccaneers have the potential to put serious pressure on opposing defences, and last week’s performance will have given them plenty of encouragement.
Atlanta, meanwhile, will be full of confidence after taking down San Francisco. That result showed they can compete with quality opposition, and playing at home gives them another advantage.
I do think this could be a proper shootout if both offences find their rhythm. The key for Tampa Bay will be protecting Mayfield and making sure they can sustain drives rather than relying on big plays alone.
It’s a divisional matchup, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes right down to the wire. However, I fancy the Buccaneers to carry their momentum into Atlanta and come away with a valuable win.
Time to shake and bake! I’m backing Tampa Bay on the Moneyline to make their intentions clear in the NFC South.
Week 8: Let’s Turn the Tide! 🎃
Last week was a reminder that the NFL rarely follows the script. The 49ers and Chiefs both came unstuck, and even the most confident picks can fall apart when Sunday rolls around.
That’s the beauty of it, I suppose. You can spend all week analysing matchups, looking at defensive schemes and convincing yourself you’ve found the winners, only for the football gods to have other ideas.
With Halloween weekend here, I’m hoping the witching hour works in our favour this time around!
Here’s hoping for fewer spooky surprises, a few solid performances and a much better week on the picks!
Until next week, happy watching! 🏈
Izzy
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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