By Jamie O’Hara, PricedUp Brand Ambassador
Spurs are back! Three wins in a row, and we’re playing well. Unfortunately, Arsenal won at Anfield for the first time since 2012 and went top of the league. Michael Carrick is clinging on at Manchester United after they came from two down to beat Roma on Tuesday having been dreadful for forty-five minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if this weekend is his last game in charge.
Last round before the international break, and there’s plenty riding on it.
Right, let’s get into it.
Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur – Saturday, 12.30pm
My prediction: Draw
Three league wins on the bounce for Spurs. After the last two seasons we’ve had, it’s a strange feeling to be picking up three points so regularly, but here we are. Ninth in the table and climbing.
Leeds have gone the other way. Three points from their last five games, beaten 2-0 at Bournemouth last time out, twelfth. But they’ve only lost twice all season, and they’ve conceded just eight goals in nine games. Only Arsenal and Brighton have let in fewer.
Elland Road at half twelve on a Saturday is a tricky fixture, and neither of us had European football in midweek, so there’s no tiredness to hide behind on either side.
Here’s my thinking, and I’d be amazed if the manager isn’t thinking the same. We need to make sure we get at least a point on Saturday. Keep the run going. Because of what’s coming next for Spurs. Ipswich at home, Sunderland away, Fulham at home, and then Arsenal come to us on the fifth of December.
A draw at Leeds and three wins from those next three, and we walk into the North London derby in a completely different place to where we were a month ago. I’ll take the draw.
Arsenal v Hull City – Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Arsenal win
Arsenal are top, three clear, and they’ve won eight of nine. Five goals conceded in the whole campaign. Havertz settled it at Anfield on Sunday, and they’ve now got the best defensive record in the division by a street.
However, they were away at Slavia Prague in the Champions League on Wednesday night, and they’ve got a habit of making these types of matches look harder than they should.
Think back to Leeds at home last month. Arsenal went a goal down on 55 minutes, needed Calafiori to level and Bruno Guimarães off the bench to win it 2-1. They don’t blow teams away, they grind them down.
Hull are not here to make up the numbers. Eleventh with eleven points, five draws from nine, and they’ve conceded ten all season. Sergej Jakirović has them well drilled. They’ll sit in, stay compact and make Arsenal work for every yard of it.
I still think Arsenal get there in the end. They’ve got too much and the squad is deep enough to rotate after Prague. But if you’re expecting four or five, I’d think again.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool – Sunday, 2pm
My prediction: Liverpool win
Palace are in a mess. Eighteenth, seven points from nine, and twenty-one goals conceded. Far and away the worst defensive record in the league.
And it got worse this week. Jean-Philippe Mateta was sent off at our place on Saturday, a late one on Micky van de Ven that Michael Oliver gave a yellow for before VAR upgraded it. Palace appealed, the commission threw it out, and he now misses three games. Losing your main striker for a month when you’re already struggling to score is about the last thing Pierre Sage needed.
Liverpool were wasteful at Anfield on Sunday and they know it. Kerkez and Mac Allister both shot wide, Mac Allister headed over from close range, Isak missed, Wirtz hit the bar from a free-kick. One-nil down and they could not find a way through. Eleven goals in nine games is not a Liverpool attacking record.
But against this Palace back line they’ll get chances, and plenty of them. Andoni Iraola’s side have only lost twice in the league all season.
Sunderland v Chelsea – Sunday, 2pm
My prediction: Chelsea win
Sunderland are bottom of the league and it’s hard to see where it turns. Five points from nine games, one win all season, seventeen goals conceded, and they were beaten 3-1 at Coventry last weekend.
Seventh last season with Europa League football to show for it. Now this. It’s a brutal fall and I don’t think they’ve got the squad to arrest it quickly.
Chelsea have problems of their own and they’re all at the back. Fifteen conceded in nine is the worst record of anyone in the top five, and that’s the thing that’ll stop them being genuine title contenders this season.
But going forward they’re a different proposition. Nineteen scored, and they handled Manchester United comfortably in the second half last weekend once they got going.
The other bit that matters here is that Chelsea have no European football, so they’ve had a full week on the training ground. Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday night and then turn around for a two o’clock kick-off on Sunday. That’s a hard ask for a side already short on confidence.
Chelsea’s attack against the worst defence they’ll face all season. I’m taking Chelsea..
Manchester United v Aston Villa – Sunday, 4.30pm
My prediction: Aston Villa win
Don’t let Tuesday night fool anyone. Yes, United beat Roma 3-2. Yes, it ended a nine-game run without a win. But look at how it happened.
They were two down inside seventeen minutes and their first-half expected goals was 0.24. That is a team that created nothing at home in a Champions League tie. Soulé hit the post before the break as well. It took a Bruno Fernandes penalty and two Matheus Cunha goals in the last seven minutes to turn it.
Chaotic, brilliant for the crowd, and I’d suggest not much to do with how good Manchester United currently are. They’ve conceded first in four straight games. They’re seventeenth in the league with seven points and one league win since the opening month.
Villa are tenth with twelve points and Emery’s got them organised again. Eleven points from their last five league games tells you more about their league form than one night at the Nou Camp does, which they will want to quickly put behind them.
United’s confidence will be up after Roma. I just don’t think the performances back it up, and I’m sticking with Villa.
The Weekend in Five
- Leeds v Tottenham – draw
- Arsenal to win
- Liverpool to win
- Chelsea to win
- Aston Villa to win
Accumulator price – 37/1
As always, these are opinions and nothing else. Have a look, make your own mind up, and only ever stake what you’re happy to lose.
Enjoy the weekend.
Jamie
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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