By Izzy Phillips, NFL Writer
The NFL never gives us a quiet weekend, does it? We’ve got a Paris showdown, a 6-0 powerhouse looking to keep rolling, a divisional rivalry that could get spicy and a couple of games where I’m backing my gut as much as the stats. Oh, and yes, my Packers bias is absolutely making an appearance. You’ve been warned!
Let’s get into this week’s picks, with a little tactical chat along the way.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Izzy’s play: Steelers -5.5
Paris is getting a taste of NFL action this weekend as the Steelers and Saints go head-to-head, and I’m leaning towards Pittsburgh to get the job done.
Aaron Rodgers has looked as good as ever, continuing to write his name into the history books. What’s particularly caught my eye is the Steelers’ use of tight end Darnell Washington. His size gives Rodgers a valuable option over the middle and in the red zone, while also creating some interesting mismatches against smaller defensive backs.
Tactically, that could be a real problem for New Orleans. If Pittsburgh can establish its short passing game early, it should be able to move the chains and keep the offence ticking over. The Saints will need to disrupt Rodgers in the pocket and prevent him from getting comfortable, because giving a quarterback of his experience time to pick apart a defence is asking for trouble.
There is one concern, though. The Steelers’ defence is looking a little beat up, and all eyes will be on T.J. Watt. He’s been a key pass-rushing threat, with 4.5 sacks, and if he’s unavailable, that loss will certainly be felt. Pittsburgh will need the rest of its defensive front to step up and keep the pressure on.
The Saints have two wins on the board, but I’m not convinced they’ve shown enough against their previous opposition to suggest they can take down this Steelers side.
I’m going a little bold here. I like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown and cover the -5.5 spread. The Watt situation is worth watching, but I’m backing Rodgers and co. to get it done.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Izzy’s play: 49ers -5.5
I’ll be honest: I’m not a Falcons fan. They always seem to find a way to make things harder for themselves, and I’m yet to be convinced they can put together the kind of consistent season needed to challenge the best.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, they’re up against a San Francisco side that has been absolutely flying at 6-0.
The 49ers have shown week after week that their strength goes beyond their starting line-up. Injuries to Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel have already tested their depth, and the absence of Mike Evans adds another challenge. Even so, Brock Purdy still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and San Francisco has the kind of offensive system that can create opportunities for multiple players.
That’s the tactical difference I’m looking at here. The 49ers can attack in several ways, mixing the run game with quick passes and using motion to create favourable matchups. If Atlanta struggles to defend the run consistently, Purdy should have opportunities to exploit the space that opens up in the passing game.
The Falcons have their own injury concerns, which makes this an even tougher assignment. They need to keep the game competitive early and avoid letting San Francisco build a lead that forces them into obvious passing situations.
I was half a point out on my prediction for the 49ers to cover -6.5 against the Commanders last week. Painful, but we move!
I still fancy San Francisco to win comfortably. I’m going bold again with the 49ers to assert their dominance, move to 7-0 and cover -5.5.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Izzy’s play: Packers Moneyline
The Packers are my team, so there’ll be no money going on this one personally, but that doesn’t mean I’m not backing them. I’m still feeling bullish about Green Bay’s chances!
This is exactly the kind of divisional rivalry game that can get messy. Green Bay have played well at home in their last two games, but now they head on the road to Detroit, where things could get a whole lot trickier.
The Lions might be sitting at the bottom of the NFC North, but they’re only one win behind the Packers and Bears. They’ll be desperate to close that gap rather than allow Green Bay to pull further away.
Detroit looked dangerous against the Cardinals last week, with Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs both finding their rhythm. When the Lions get their running game going, Gibbs can be a nightmare to contain. His ability to turn a short gain into a big play means Green Bay will need to be disciplined with its tackling and limit the yards after contact.
The Packers will want to make Detroit work defensively, too. If they can establish their own run game and avoid becoming predictable on passing downs, they can put pressure on the Lions’ defence and keep Goff watching from the sideline.
I think these two teams are pretty well matched offensively, which makes this a difficult one to call. Home advantage gives Detroit a boost, but I’m sticking with my team on the Moneyline.
Am I biased? Absolutely. Am I changing my pick? Not a chance. Go Pack Go!
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Izzy’s play: Chiefs -5.5
Now this one looks like a proper stonker.
We’ve got the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs, taking on a Seahawks side that will be desperate to prove they can compete with the best. Kansas City are 5-0 and sitting pretty at the top of the AFC West, while Seattle have had a tougher time navigating injuries and some difficult matchups.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks have been on the wrong end of some bruising results against the 49ers and Broncos. They now face another serious test against Andy Reid’s Kansas City side.
The big question for Seattle is whether they can get their running game going. There have been concerns around the running back position, and the status of Zach Charbonnet will be worth monitoring. If he’s fit, he could be important in helping Seattle establish balance on offence and take some pressure off Darnold.
Without a reliable ground game, the Seahawks risk becoming too one-dimensional. That would allow Kansas City to focus on pressuring the quarterback and forcing Seattle into difficult third-down situations.
On the other side of the ball, the connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce remains one of the most dangerous combinations in the league. Kelce’s ability to find soft spots in zone coverage and create separation over the middle gives Mahomes a dependable option when plays break down or the defence takes away the deep ball.
I’m backing the Chiefs to win and cover the -5.5 spread. They’ve looked comfortable this season, and I think their offensive flexibility gives them the edge to win by more than a field goal.
One to keep separate: I also like Travis Kelce as an anytime touchdown scorer. His chemistry with Mahomes is always worth watching, and if Kansas City get into the red zone, he’s very much in the conversation.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Izzy’s play: Eagles Moneyline
This one comes with a few question marks, because the Eagles are dealing with a difficult spell and the news surrounding Jalen Hurts’ blood clot has added to the pressure on the team. With Hurts out, Philadelphia have a huge challenge ahead of them, and Nick Sirianni is under scrutiny.
Philadelphia have looked vulnerable, and their defeat to the Panthers last week certainly won’t have helped the mood. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t exactly been setting the world alight themselves. They’ve had their own struggles, and looking healthier on paper doesn’t count for much if they can’t turn that into wins.
Tactically, I’m expecting a closely fought game. Without Hurts, the Eagles may need to lean more heavily on their ground game and short, controlled passes to keep the offence moving. Protecting the football will be crucial, especially if Dallas can generate pressure and force Philadelphia into obvious passing situations.
The status of Saquon Barkley is another major talking point. If he’s fit and available, his explosiveness could be hugely important. He can give Philadelphia a way to move the ball without putting everything on the replacement quarterback, while also helping them control the tempo.
For Dallas, the opportunity is there to exploit the uncertainty in the Eagles’ offence. If they can start quickly and put Philadelphia under pressure, they could make life very uncomfortable for the home side.
Despite all the concerns, I’m going Eagles Moneyline. It’s not the most confident pick on my list, and I expect a potentially low-scoring, hard-fought game, but I’m not quite ready to write Philadelphia off.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the injury updates before kick-off, particularly around Barkley, because his availability could make a real difference to how this one plays out.
Five games, five picks and plenty to keep us entertained this weekend. I’m backing the Steelers to handle the Saints, the 49ers to keep their unbeaten run going, the Packers because… well, you know why, the Chiefs to beat Seattle and cover -5.5, and the Eagles to edge out Dallas.
As always, injuries and late team news can change the picture, so check the latest updates and available prices before kick-off. These are predictions, not guarantees, and there’s always the chance the NFL decides to make us all look a bit silly.
Enjoy the football, and I’ll be back to see how these picks stack up!
Izzy
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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