By Jamie O’Hara, PricedUp Brand Ambassador
Midweek in Europe told you plenty. Arsenal went to Munich and came back with a point after going behind twice. Bournemouth put three past AC Milan. And Manchester United lost 4-1 at Como, which is about where they are right now.
Right, let’s get into it.
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest – Friday, 8pm
My prediction: Draw
Forest cannot score. Five goals in seven games is the lowest in the division, and that’s the whole story of their season so far.
They spent a club record on Liam Delap from Chelsea to fix exactly this, and I’m not convinced he’s the answer. One goal in six appearances. Eighteen shots, and only three of them on target. That’s not a man short of chances, that’s a man who isn’t hitting the target when he gets them, and at some point that becomes a confidence thing as much as a technical one.
Oliver Glasner is still searching for a way to play. They lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal last week and barely laid a glove on them.
Ipswich have the opposite problem. Gary O’Neil’s side can score with eleven in seven, but they cannot keep anyone out. Fifteen conceded, and they shipped three at the Etihad last week before losing 3-2.
I think they cancel each other out. Draw.
Arsenal v Everton – Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Arsenal win
Arsenal have conceded five goals in seven league games. That’s the best defensive record in the division by a distance, and it’s the foundation everything else is built on.
They won 1-0 at the City Ground last week through Madueke, then went to Munich on Wednesday and drew 2-2 with Bayern. For a side that’s been accused of being functional rather than thrilling, that was a proper away performance against serious opposition.
Everton have had a solid start, and they deserve credit for it. Eighth, ten points, and unbeaten until Chelsea turned them over 2-0 at the Hill Dickinson last week. David Moyes has them organised and Pickford has been excellent.
But they’ve scored eight goals in seven games, and that’s the problem on Saturday. You do not go to the Emirates and win without being ruthless, and Everton haven’t been ruthless against anybody yet. They’d need to take whatever comes their way, and I don’t think they will.
Saka is a doubt after limping out in Munich, and Saliba hasn’t played all season. Arteta’s squad is deep enough to cope but check the team news. I’m going Arsenal, and I fancy them to keep a clean sheet.
Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur – Saturday, 5.30pm
My prediction: Draw
We weren’t amazing against Coventry on Monday night. Let’s not get carried away. But three goals is three goals, and after the start we’ve had I’ll take it. That’s the first time all season we’ve looked like a team that knows where the goal is, and confidence is the whole game at the minute.
Chelsea only knows how to play one way. Xabi Alonso has them going forward at every opportunity and the numbers back it up with seventeen scored, thirteen conceded, which is more goals in their games than any other side near the top. They beat Everton 2-0 away last week with Pedro Neto scoring twice, proving it’s not just Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro you have to be worried about.
And they always turn up against us. Doesn’t matter what the table says, doesn’t matter who’s in form, that fixture always gets the best out of them.
So, I’m expecting an end-to-end game at the Bridge on Saturday evening, and I don’t think either defence holds. If we take our chances, we can get a draw. I’m going 2-2.
Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth – Sunday, 2pm
My prediction: Manchester United win
United are in serious trouble and Wednesday was the lowest point yet. Four-one at Como. Nico Paz scored twice, they were two down inside the first half.
Thirteenth in the league, one win in seven, and the pressure on Michael Carrick is now constant.
But here’s why I’m backing them anyway. This squad is full of players who can turn it on when they fancy it. They drew at Elland Road, they’ve got Fernandes, Mbeumo and Cunha, and Old Trafford after a humiliation in Europe is exactly the environment where a reaction comes. Carrick will have told them straight this week. He’ll have had to.
And I’m always wary of a side coming off Thursday night football. Bournemouth beat AC Milan 3-0 at the Vitality, which is a terrific result in anyone’s book, though it’s worth saying Milan had their goalkeeper sent off and played a big chunk of it with ten men. Now they travel the length of the country for a Sunday early afternoon kick-off.
Bournemouth have one league win all season. I think the legs tell, I think Old Trafford responds, and I’m expecting United to get a result.
Sunderland v Leeds United – Sunday, 4.30pm
My prediction: Leeds win
Sunderland have not been good, nowhere near last season standards. Bottom of the league, four points from seven games, six goals scored and fourteen conceded. Beaten 2-0 at Bournemouth last weekend.
What makes it worse is where they’ve come from. Seventh last season, Europa League football earned the hard way, one of the stories of the campaign. Now they’re staring at a relegation fight before we’ve reached November, and they’ve got European football draining them on top. They were away at Lech Poznan in Poland on Thursday night, and now they’ve got to go again on Sunday afternoon.
Leeds are a very solid team this season and I’ve been impressed. Seventh, ten points, and only six goals conceded. Second only to Arsenal in that department. Daniel Farke has built something properly organised and the team works hard.
They were very good in defeat at the Emirates, and last week they came from behind to draw with Manchester United and had the better chances late on. A penalty shout waved away, Stach nearly winning it in added time. That could easily have been three points.
Tired legs, a side with no confidence, against the most disciplined team outside the top four. Leeds win.
The Weekend in Five
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest – draw
- Arsenal to win
- Chelsea v Tottenham – draw
- Manchester United to win
- Leeds United to win
Accumulator price – 95/1
As always, these are opinions and nothing else. Have a look, make your own mind up, and only ever stake what you’re happy to lose.
Enjoy the weekend.
Jamie
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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