By Izzy Phillips, NFL Writer
Welcome to the first edition of Izzy’s Weekly Playbook for PricedUp! 🏈🇺🇸
I’m very excited to be bringing you my weekly NFL predictions, where I’ll be looking at the matchups, getting a bit tactical and giving you my take on how I see things playing out.
We’ve got a good one this week! Jacksonville are sticking around in London for another week, the Eagles will be looking to bounce back after their heartbreak in North London last weekend, and there are some big storylines developing with the unbeaten teams and a few early MVP contenders.
Five games to get in to, with my thoughts on the spreads; a couple of teams I think could cause an upset and a cheeky touchdown scorer for good measure. 👀
Let’s see if I can get off to a winning start! 🤞
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
My play: Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5
Houston have had a torrid time of it so far. Their only win of the season came against the winless Tennessee Titans last week, and it’s hardly the sort of form that inspires confidence heading into a divisional match-up on the road. Or, in this case, on the road in another country.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, have become London’s honorary home team, and they’re on a roll. That last-minute field goal to beat the Eagles at Tottenham last week will have them riding high, they sit top of the AFC South at 4-1, and there’s something to be said for a team that is already settled in the UK. They’re in the time zone, they know the routine, and they’ve already got a win over here under their belts.
Tactically, this one sets up nicely for the Jags. If they can establish the run early and put Houston in obvious passing situations, they can turn the screw on the Texans’ offence and force the mistakes that have dogged them all season. Houston need to find some consistency on both sides of the ball, and I’m just not convinced they’ve shown enough to keep pace.
Jacksonville to cover -4.5, currently 11/8 on PricedUp, looks a very attractive price to me. Wembley could be a happy hunting ground for the Jags once again.
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
My play: Carolina Panthers Moneyline
The Eagles are back on home turf after leaving London with their tails between their legs, but they’ve been dealt a devastating blow ahead of this one. QB Jalen Hurts is out this week after a scan revealed a blood clot, meaning they’ll need Saquon Barkley fit and firing more than ever if they’re going to bounce back.
Barkley has been nursing a hamstring injury himself, which makes his fitness even more important. Even if he’s listed as active, will he be moving at his usual pace? The Eagles’ offence relies heavily on his ability to turn a routine carry into a big play, and without Hurts, they’ll need Barkley to take on even more responsibility. A Barkley who’s anything less than full tilt could leave them seriously short of answers.
Carolina, on the other hand, are quietly putting together a half-decent season, and Chuba Hubbard is having a particularly good time of it. If the Panthers can get their ground game going, control possession and win the battle on early downs, they can keep the Eagles’ offence stood on the sideline. With Philadelphia missing its starting QB, that feels like an even more appealing route into this one.
I’d be hesitant to call a big-margin win for either side, but Hurts’ absence makes this a much trickier game for Philadelphia than it might have been. I think Carolina can edge it. When I can see a game being this tight, the Moneyline appeals far more than taking points on a spread.
One to keep separate: I’d also have a look at Chuba Hubbard as a touchdown scorer. If Carolina keep things competitive into the fourth quarter, there could be chances for him to capitalise as the Philadelphia defence starts to tire. It’s a fun extra angle, but I’d treat it as its own bet rather than bolting it onto the main pick.
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
My play: Buffalo Bills -5.5
The Bills have looked pretty comfortable for most of this season, the blip against last year’s Super Bowl runners-up, the New England Patriots, aside.
Josh Allen is still putting himself in a strong position for an MVP run, and it’s his dual-threat ability that makes him such a nightmare to defend. Opponents have to account for both the arm and the legs, and if the pocket breaks down he can turn what looks like a lost play into a significant gain in the blink of an eye.
The Raiders have had two tough games on the bounce against the Patriots and the Chiefs, and it doesn’t get any easier from here. Their pass rush managed just the one sack on Drake Maye last week, and it will need to be far more effective if they’re going to disrupt Allen and stop him dictating the game. Give him time to work through his progressions, or let him escape the pocket, and it could be a long afternoon for the Las Vegas defence.
For me, the key match-up is whether the Raiders can consistently pressure Allen without leaving space for him to exploit. Get that balance wrong and Buffalo have the weapons to punish them. Buffalo -5.5 feels like a rational bet at 21/10 on PricedUp. The Bills have the firepower to win this by more than a field goal, and I’d back their offence to create enough separation to cover.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
My play: Green Bay Packers -4.5
I have a rule that I don’t bet on my own team. I’m not a fan of the Cowboys, so fortunately, there’s no internal conflict here!
Dallas seem to find new ways to make life difficult for themselves week in, week out, while the Pack were imperious at Lambeau Field against their old rivals the Bears last week.
From a tactical point of view, Green Bay have plenty to like. If they can get the running game going, they stay ahead of the chains and give themselves far more options on third down. That also lets them control the tempo and keeps the Cowboys’ offence watching from the sidelines.
Dallas need to find a way to disrupt Green Bay’s rhythm and make life uncomfortable for their quarterback. If they let the Packers dictate the pace, I can see them struggling to keep this one competitive.
I’m expecting more Lambeau Leaps and Jerry Jones tearing his hair out on the sideline, and honestly, I’m not going to complain about either. A comfortable Green Bay win is my call, and I’m confident enough in the Packers to cover -4.5 at 13/8.
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
My play: San Francisco 49ers -6.5
Brock Purdy is putting himself firmly in the MVP conversation, and the 49ers just keep getting the job done despite a seemingly endless injury list. They’re unbeaten at 5-0 and top of the NFC West, which says plenty about their ability to adapt and find a way to win.
Last week’s hard-fought battle with their divisional rivals and last year’s Super Bowl winners, the Seattle Seahawks, will have tested them, but San Francisco have the coaching and the offensive structure to keep competing even when key names are missing.
Washington, meanwhile, had a bit of a meltdown with their clock management in the tie against the Giants, and their quarterback situation has been a game of hokey-cokey. Jayden Daniels returned in Week 5 after an elbow injury but looked rusty, while Marcus Mariota, who had impressed earlier in the season, including in the win over Seattle, suffered a serious knee injury against the Colts in London.
The tactical battle here is whether Washington can protect their quarterback and sustain drives against a San Francisco side that makes opponents work for every yard. If the Commanders can’t stay on schedule on early downs, the 49ers will turn up the pressure and force them into difficult third-down spots.
With Kyle Shanahan’s coaching, squad depth and game-management nous, the Niners are an easy Monday night selection for me. The one caveat is team news. Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk have all been mentioned as injury concerns, and while San Francisco have the depth to cope, availability matters when you’re asking a team to win by more than a touchdown.
I like the Niners to get the W, but I’d play it conservatively at -6.5 at 8/11 rather than going chasing a bigger margin.
Those are my picks. Let’s hope I’m celebrating on Monday rather than wondering where it all went wrong! 😂🏈
Izzy
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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