By The Racing Blogger, PricedUp Brand Ambassador – standing in for Jamie O’Hara
Right then! Big news first. Jamie has just become a girl dad, so whilst he’s off the gaffer has handed me the keys to the blog. Massive congratulations to Jamie and the family.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. What does a racing man know about football? Fair question. But form is form, whether it’s got four legs or two. You look at what a team’s done, who they’ve done it against, what the going’s like and whether they’re carrying any excess baggage. Same job, different animal.
Five games, five calls. Let’s go!
Bournemouth v Brentford — Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Draw
Bournemouth have taken the lead in all three of their league games this season and haven’t held on in any of them. City turned them over late on opening day, then it was 1-1 with Everton and 2-2 at Newcastle. That’s like a horse that travels beautifully to the two-furlong pole and then gets collared. A 4-0 cup win over Lincoln in midweek, with Ryan Christie helping himself to a hat-trick, will have done the confidence no harm, but Brentford will bring them back to Premier League reality.
Brentford are unbeaten and look the more solid animal. Two goals conceded in three games, and that 3-0 on opening day against Tottenham was as comfortable as it sounds. But they’ve got the same problem from the other direction. They’ve led at Leeds and led at home to Sunderland and drawn both 1-1, the second one after giving away a penalty in the 82nd minute. Keith Andrews said afterwards his side caused themselves a lot of problems, and he wasn’t wrong.
Then there’s the record between them. Bournemouth have never beaten Brentford in the Premier League in eight attempts – three draws and five defeats. The last meeting, at this ground in March, finished 0-0.
Two sides who can’t hold a lead, one of them who can’t beat the other. That’s a stalemate written all over it for me. Draw.
Liverpool v Fulham — Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Liverpool win
This is the nearest thing to a Group One horse dropping into a handicap that you’ll see all weekend.
Liverpool haven’t been flawless. They opened with 2-2 draws against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, and they’re seventh on five points. But the form is heading in the right direction. They went to Ipswich last week and won 2-0 with their first clean sheet under Andoni Iraola, then on Wednesday night they fell behind to Atletico Madrid at Anfield and turned it round to win 2-1, Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister doing the damage. That’s the sign of a team starting to get it. Alexander Isak already has three league goals and Florian Wirtz is running the show behind him.
Fulham, meanwhile, are bottom of the table without a point. Three games, three defeats, and it’s the manner of them that worries me. They lost 3-2 to Chelsea at home, 1-0 at Sunderland, and then last week they led Crystal Palace twice at the Cottage and still lost 3-2. That’s a defence that’s leaking like a burst hosepipe, and there are already mutterings about Álvaro Arbeloa, who’s only just got his feet under the desk.
The history doesn’t help them either. Fulham have won at Anfield twice in forty visits.
Liverpool at home, needing a win, against a side that can’t defend. That’s a comfortable one for me. Liverpool.
Tottenham v Everton — Saturday, 5.30pm
My prediction: Everton win
Because Spurs are shit.
Sunderland v Arsenal — Saturday, 8pm
My prediction: Arsenal win (3-0)
Saturday night under the lights at the Stadium of Light. A proper atmosphere, and it’ll be rocking for this one.
Credit where it’s due, Sunderland are a solid side. They lost their opener at Ipswich, then beat Fulham 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 at Brentford with a late Enzo Le Fée penalty, and knocked Hull out of the Carabao Cup in midweek. They’ve been particularly stubborn without the ball; opponents have managed just five shots on target against them in three league games. And they’ve got previous here. Arsenal came to this ground last season and were pegged back 2-2 by a Brian Brobbey equaliser in stoppage time. Régis Le Bris will have that on the whiteboard.
But then there’s Arsenal. Three from three in the league. Six scored, one conceded. Coventry beaten 3-0, Villa beaten 1-0 away, Chelsea beaten 2-1 last Sunday, and then a 1-0 win at Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday for good measure. Le Bris himself called them the best team in the world this week, and he’s not wrong. They haven’t lost to Sunderland in fourteen meetings, and when the sides met at the Emirates last season it finished 3-0.
Sunderland may make it awkward for 30 minutes. Arsenal have the class to see it out and pull well clear late on. I’m calling the same scoreline as last season’s meeting. Arsenal, 3-0.
Manchester United v Manchester City — Sunday, 4.30pm
My prediction: Draw (1-1)
The feature match of the weekend, and it’s a cracker on paper.
City are three from three, top of the table on goals scored, and Enzo Maresca’s first Manchester derby from the dugout. They followed a 1-0 over Coventry with a 2-0 win at Porto in the Champions League, and Erling Haaland has scored in every league game so far. Three in three. Some things don’t change.
United are the harder read. They lost 2-0 at Hull on opening day, came from behind to beat Ipswich 5-2, then led twice at Everton and drew 2-2 after Ainsley Maitland-Niles scored a screamer in stoppage time. Bruno Fernandes has three goals and an assist already and looks in the form of his life. But even in the 4-0 midweek win over Sabah, they were easy to play through, and that’s not a habit you want to bring into a game against a purring City.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting, and why I can’t just side with City. United have won ten of their eleven home league games under Michael Carrick. City have won just one of the last four league derbies, and the last one, in January, United won 2-0 at Old Trafford and were sensational that day. Old Trafford on derby day is a different, and City haven’t handled it well lately.
Draw, 1-1.
The Racing Blogger’s calls for Matchweek Four
- Bournemouth v Brentford — Draw
- Liverpool v Fulham — Liverpool win
- Tottenham v Everton — Everton win
- Sunderland v Arsenal — Arsenal win
- Man United v Man City — Draw
Accumulator odds – 117/1
So that’s my card for the weekend. Five predictions.
If I get five from five, I’ll be asking for Jamie’s job. If I get none, I’ll be back at the races where I belong, and we’ll pretend this never happened. Either way, enjoy the football, and congratulations again to Jamie who will be back next week.
The Racing Blogger
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