By Jamie O’Hara, PricedUp Brand Ambassador
Two out of five last week. Six from ten overall. Not my finest hour. Man United and Arsenal came in. The other three didn’t, and the one that stings is Spurs. I told you I was backing us partly with the heart, and that’s what you get. Liverpool and Bournemouth both drew when I’d called home wins. That’s football.
Right. Matchweek three. Five games
Ipswich Town v Liverpool — Friday, 8pm
My prediction: Liverpool win
Ipswich shipped five at Old Trafford last week and that’s a worrying way to go into this one.
A brand new Ipswich back line will take time to get used to each other, and Liverpool are not the side you want to be figuring that out against.
However, Liverpool haven’t been convincing. Two points from six, four goals conceded, two 2-2 draws. Andoni Iraola will not be happy with the defending in either game. But they’ve scored two in both, they created 27 shots against Newcastle, and the attacking threat has never been the problem.
And then they go and add Bradley Barcola. £106m, potentially rising to £123m, which makes him the second-most expensive signing in the club’s history behind Isak. A two-time Champions League winner, 39 goals in 152 games for PSG, three at the World Cup this summer. He’s essentially the answer to Salah walking out the door on a free, and he’s been reported as available for Friday night.
So, Ipswich have to defend for their lives and try nick something from a set piece, using Portman Road under the lights, a big crowd and Liverpool’s back four looking uncertain to their advantage. But over ninety minutes I think the quality will tell. Liverpool win.
Newcastle v Bournemouth — Saturday, 12.30pm
My prediction: Newcastle win
Matthias Jaissle has got Newcastle playing with belief and it’s showing quickly.
They should have beaten Liverpool on the opening day. Led twice, defended it properly, and only got stopped by a Szoboszlai penalty in the ninth minute of stoppage time. Then they came to us last week and were ruthless — two chances, two goals, job done, and they never looked like letting it slip. For a manager two games into a Premier League job, that’s a serious start.
Bournemouth are the opposite story so far. They were excellent at the Etihad and lost it late. Then they couldn’t back it up, drawing 1-1 at home with Everton when three points were there. One point from six is not what this squad is worth — sixth last season, 57 points, the longest unbeaten run in the whole division — but Marco Rose is still working out his best side although they are beginning to lose momentum.
St James’ will be loud for a lunchtime kick-off with Newcastle in the top four in the early table. I’ll take the hosts, and I’d expect them to be efficient about it rather than spectacular. This Newcastle side doesn’t need fifteen chances to win a game.
Brighton v Leeds — Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Brighton win
Seven goals in two games. Brighton can absolutely play.
Four past Aston Villa on the opening weekend, then three at Stamford Bridge — and the second one is the interesting bit, because they were 3-0 down inside 32 minutes and still came back to make it 4-3. Fabian Hürzeler said afterwards they weren’t good enough in the basics and he was right. But a team that can score three away at Chelsea after that start has got something.
That’s Brighton in a nutshell, mind. Eighth in each of the last two seasons, into Europe for only the second time in the club’s history, brilliant going forward and occasionally wide open at the back. You never quite know which side you’re getting.
Leeds will fancy this and they’ve earned the right to. Four points from six, a 1-0 win at the City Ground, then a draw with Brentford, and they knocked Forest out of the Carabao Cup on top. They’re organised, they’re horrible to break down, and they’ll travel with no fear whatsoever.
I think Brighton edge it at the Amex, but I’m not expecting a hammering. One or two goals in it, and Leeds will have their moments.
Manchester City v Coventry — Saturday, 3pm
My prediction: Manchester City win
What City have just done in the transfer market is remarkable, and I’m not sure we’ve fully processed it.
Elliot Anderson for £116m. Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille at eighteen for around £81m. Then deadline day: Enzo Fernández from Chelsea for £125m, a joint British record, and Iliman Ndiaye from Everton for £65m. That’s the best part of £400m on a squad that already finished second. Whether it’s the best window we’ll ever see, I don’t know — but it’s certainly one of the boldest.
Because the flip side is enormous too. Rodri to Barcelona. Bernardo Silva, John Stones, Nathan Aké and Manuel Akanji all gone in the same summer. Sávio and Marmoush sold to Spurs, Grealish out on loan to Everton. Key pillars of the Guardiola era cleared out in nine weeks. That’s not a squad refresh, that’s a demolition and a rebuild, and Enzo Maresca must make it work immediately.
He’s making a decent fist of it so far. Two wins, top of the table, and four goals at Selhurst Park last week after that Community Shield disappointment. A home game against a newly promoted side is exactly when you’d expect them to really give it a go.
Coventry have had the draw from hell — Arsenal and City in their first three, and no Premier League goal yet. Losing at home to Hull last week was the one they needed, and it’ll likely sting more by Saturday evening. Frank Lampard deserves better than this fixture list, but I can’t see anything other than a Man City win, and a comfortable one.
Arsenal v Chelsea — Sunday, 4.30pm
My prediction: Arsenal win
This is the pick of the weekend and it’s a proper contrast in styles.
Chelsea are level with Arsenal on points and have been terrific going forward. Seven goals in two games, 3-2 at Fulham and that 4-3 against Brighton where they were three up inside half an hour. Xabi Alonso has them attacking with real conviction. But they’ve also conceded five, and they were pegged back from 3-0 by a Brighton side that had been dreadful for thirty minutes. That’s a warning sign.
And here’s the thing that could really bite. Chelsea sold Enzo Fernández to Manchester City on deadline day for £125m, and the deal to replace him — Lamine Camara from Monaco — fell apart in the final hours. So, they’ve lost a World Cup-winning midfielder and haven’t replaced him, and their next test is away at the champions.
Arsenal, meanwhile, haven’t conceded a goal all season. Not one, in three matches, including 3-0 against City in the Community Shield. David Raya kept 19 clean sheets last season and won the Golden Glove for it, and that back line looks every bit as strong with Ezri Konsa added to it.
What I’d say for balance is that Arsenal haven’t exactly been thrilling either — 1-0 at Villa Park was a grind. But if you’re going to be functional, being functional and not conceding is the version you want.
Arsenal win for me. And if Chelsea’s midfield looks light on Sunday, we’ll all know why.
The Weekend in Five
- Liverpool to win
- Newcastle to win
- Brighton to win
- Manchester City to win
- Arsenal to win
Accumulator price: 10.44/1
As always, these are opinions and nothing else. I went two from five last week and I’ll have worse weeks than that before May. Have a look, make your own mind up, and only ever stake what you’re happy to lose.
Enjoy the weekend.
Jamie
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support and advice, visit BeGambleAware.org
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